Exchange Rate Rules, Black Market Premia and Fiscal Deficits: The Bolivian Hyperinflation
分析双重汇率制度下，财政赤字如何导致多种通胀均衡，并以1984-1985年玻利维亚恶性通胀为例，说明调整官方汇率向黑市汇率靠拢可能引发高通胀陷阱。
With dual exchange rates, where a managed official exchange rate co-exists with a floating black market rate, a given budget deficit may be consistent with many different inflation rates rather than two, which is the normal result in closed economy systems. Further, all these inflation equilibria are saddle-point stable. A policy of adjusting the official exchange rate towards the black market rate may cause the economy to converge to a high-inflation, saddle-point stable equilibrium where money inflation elasticity exceeds unity. The analytics are motivated and illustrated by the Bolivian hyperinflation of 1984–1985.