Testing for Forecast Consensus
提出一个定义：当每个预测者对同一个潜在变量赋予相同权重时，预测小组就达成了共识。作者构建动态潜变量模型来检验共识，并判断用平均预测作为共识预测是否合理。对美国宏观预测者调查的应用显示，产出增长预测的共识高于通胀或失业预测，但多数预测者存在年度自相关。
A panel of forecasts may be defined to be in consensus when individual forecasters place identical weights on a common latent variable. We suggest this definition and formulate a dynamic latent-variable model to test for consensus. This method also tests whether it is valid to use the mean forecast as the consensus forecast. In applications to surveys of U.S. macroeconomic forecasters, there is greater consensus in forecasts for output growth than for inflation or unemployment, but idiosyncratic forecast autocorrelation from year to year is present for most forecasters.