Wage Contract Settlements in U.S. Manufacturing
利用大规模纵向微观数据，检验1957-1980年美国制造业工会工资协议的决定因素，发现预期通胀率、通胀意外、收入政策变量和关键全国协议的溢出效应是重要因素。
A bstruactUsing a large scale, longitudinal micro data base this paper tests for the determinants of union wage settlements in manufacturing. Alternative specifications of wage change relationships were tested in data covering the years 1957 to 1980. Among the most important determinants of union wage changes were the expected inflation rate, inflationary surprises (in indexed agreements), incomes policy dummy variables and spillovers from key national agreements. Catch-up effects from lagged inflationary surprises were not important in determining the size of new settlements.