Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States*
使用12维VAR模型，研究两种技术冲击和两种政策冲击对劳动力市场的动态影响，发现劳动力指标呈驼峰状响应，技术冲击和货币政策冲击对劳动力市场波动重要，但重要性排序因VAR设定而异。
Abstract We use a 12‐dimensional VAR to examine the aggregate effects of two structural technology shocks and two policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labor market, the importance of the shock for labor market volatility, and the comovement between labor market variables and other key aggregate variables in response to the shock. We document that labor market indicators display “hump‐shaped” responses to the identified shocks. Technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important for labor market volatility but the ranking of their importance is sensitive to the VAR specification. The conditional correlations at business cycle frequencies are similar in response to the four shocks, apart from the correlations between hours worked, labor productivity and real wages. To account for the unconditional correlations between these variables, a mixture of shocks is required.