The effect of smoking on health using a sequential self‐selection model
构建了一个包含吸烟起始和戒烟决策的结构模型，利用健康与退休调查数据估计吸烟对健康的影响，发现戒烟决策中的自选择符合经济理性。
We estimate a structural model of individual smoking behaviour emphasizing the role of individual risk belief on smoking choices. Our model consists of five equations: two selection equations for initiation and cessation decisions, and three switching outcome regressions for nonsmokers, ex-smokers, and current smokers. The presence of significant self-selectivity implies that the health effects of smoking based on sample proportions do not correctly indicate the true risk of cigarette smoking. Further, our evidence suggests that the self-selection in the cessation decision, but not in the initiation decision, is consistent with economic rationality. We estimate the model by full information maximum likelihood (FIML) with starting values from heteroskedasticity corrected Heckman-Lee two-step method using newly released Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data.