Survey Expectations in the Time Series Consumption Function
在传统消费函数中引入基于调查的收入和实际利率预期与不确定性度量，发现调查数据比传统变量更能解释消费变化，并否定了消费随机游走假说，支持消费对预期收入增长滞后响应的模型。
This paper introduces survey-based measures of expectations and uncertainties about income and real interest rates into an otherwise conventional consumption function. The survey dat a contribute more than conventional variables to the explanation of changes in consumption. The hypothesis that consumption follows a random walk is rejected in favor of a model in which consumption responds with a lag to changes in expected income growth. The significance of inflation in earlier estimates of the U.S. consumpti on function is shown to be spurious and due to a strong negative correlation between expected inflation and expected income growth. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.