Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn’t: A Tale of Two Eras
对比了1985-2003年规则导向与2003年后自由裁量两个时期的货币政策效果，发现规则导向时期经济表现更好，论证了规则优于自由裁量。
This lecture examines monetary policy during the past three decades. It documents two contrasting eras: first a Rules‐Based Era from 1985 to 2003 and second an Ad Hoc Era from 2003 to the present. During the Rules‐Based Era, monetary policy, in broad terms, followed a predictable systemic approach, and economic performance was generally good. During the Ad Hoc Era, monetary policy is best described as a “discretion of authorities” approach, and economic performance was decidedly poor. By considering alternative explanations of this policy–performance correlation and examining corroborating evidence, the lecture concludes that rules‐based policies have clear advantages over discretion.