A virtuous circle model of rural‐urban development: Evidence from a Kenyan small town and its Hinterland
利用肯尼亚数据检验城乡发展良性循环模型的多个命题，发现该循环依赖于强劲的出口基础、农民与市场的连接、小城镇通过收入多样化提高农业生产力，以及农业带动非农活动，但不当的宏观政策可能破坏这一循环。
Using data from Kenya, this article explores several propositions of a ‘virtuous circle’ model of rural‐urban development, to determine when the model might operate within a local economy. It is shown that: the cycle of reinforcing linkages hinges on a vigorous export base; external demand is only effective when farmers are connected to markets; small towns help raise agricultural productivity by allowing farmers to spread risk by diversifying incomes; vibrant agriculture spurs the proliferation of local non‐farm activities, which in turn create demand for farm produce, though not necessarily from the same area; and, finally, the virtuous circle model can be undermined by inappropriate macroeconomic policies.