Inflation, Unemployment, and Public Opinion Polls
分析民意调查中公众认为通胀比失业更严重的原因，通过截面和时间序列数据研究调查问题的决定因素，帮助理解民意调查结果的含义。
IT IS WELL KNOWN that public opinion polls report that the public regards inflation as a more serious problem than unemployment. In this paper we examine public opinion surveys with the aim of discovering what, if anything, the poll results mean. We describe in some detail the questions about inflation and unemployment asked in the surveys and analyze the determinants, in both cross section and time series, of answers to those questions. The typical opinion poll question about inflation and unemployment is Which of the two problems inflation or unemployment do you think will cause the more serious economic hardship for people during the next year or so?''1 Section 1 discusses the possible issues to which opinion poll questions about inflation and unemployment might be relevant. Section 2 tabulates a variety of questions that have been asked, along with the responses, and examines the views expressed and their consistency, both internal and across different polls. Section 3 presents a regression analysis of the cross-sectional determinants of responses to the Michigan poll question cited above, while section 4 studies determinants of changes over time