Analysis and comparison of financial analysts', time series, and combined forecasts of annual earnings
研究了财务分析师盈余预测的分歧程度对分析师预测、时间序列预测及两者组合预测准确度的影响，发现组合预测优于单一来源，且分歧越大、预测期越长时组合改进效果越明显。
This paper examines the effects of disagreement in financial analysts' earnings forecasts on the accuracy of analysts', time series, and combined forecast made at four forecast horizons. The empirical analysis indicates that, while analysts do better than any of the three time series models studied, simple combinations of analysts' and time series forecast are superior to forecast from either source at every horizon. The accuracy of individual and combined forecasts is inversely related to the dispersion of analysts' forecast, and the improvements from combination is greatest when analysts' forecast dispersion is greatest and the forecast horizon longest.