An Empirical Examination of the Timing of Land Conversions in the Presence of Farmland Preservation Programs
利用地块级面板数据估计风险模型，发现农田保护选项的存在使土地转换决策延迟约六年，中位转换时间减少12%至43%，且开发收益波动性增加会减缓转换。
Abstract Using a panel of parcel‐level data we estimate a hazard model and find strong evidence that the mere existence of an option to preserve farmland delays decisions to convert farmland to developed uses by about six years, a reduction in median conversion time of 12 to 43% depending on parcel size. Where such delays allow local governments to improve infrastructure or implement stricter growth control measures, benefits of a preservation option may be even more long term. Also, increases in the variance of returns to development tended to slow conversion for parcels with all but the highest lot capacities.