Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging
用贝叶斯模型平均方法分析非洲增长，发现采矿、初级出口和初始初等教育对非洲增长有特殊影响，与全球其他地区不同。
Abstract This paper takes a fresh look at Africa's growth experience by using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methodology. BMA enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which of these variable can effectively explain Africa's growth experience. Posterior coefficient estimates reveal that key engines of growth in Africa are substantially different from those in the rest of the world. More precisely, it is shown that mining, primary exports and initial primary education exerted differential effect on African growth. These results are examined in relation to the existing literature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.