A Structural Model of Social Security's Disability Determination Process
构建了一个多阶段序贯logit模型，模拟美国社会保障局的残疾判定流程，利用1989-1993年调查与行政匹配数据，发现该结构模型比传统二元logit更准确预测整体通过率，并揭示健康、残疾和职业因素的差异化影响。
We estimate a multistage sequential logit model reflecting the structure of the disability determination process of the Social Security Administration (SSA). The model is estimated using household survey information exact-matched to SSA records on disability adjudications from 1989 to 1993. Under program provisions, different criteria dictate outcomes at different steps of the determination process. We find that, without the multistaged structural approach, effects of many important health, disability, and vocational factors are not readily discernible. As a result, split-sample predictions of overall allowance rates from the sequential model perform considerably better than do those for the conventional allowed/denied logit regression. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology