Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
认为通胀持续性主要源于长期趋势通胀的变化，而非后顾性成分。通过引入时变趋势通胀，纯前瞻性新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线能很好地拟合数据，无需添加后顾性项。
Purely forward-looking versions of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) generate too little inflation persistence. Some authors add ad hoc backward-looking terms to address this shortcoming. We hypothesize that inflation persistence results mainly from variation in the long-run trend component of inflation, which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy. We derive a version of the NKPC that incorporates a time-varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation. When drift in trend inflation is taken into account, a purely forward-looking version of the model fits the data well, and there is no need for backward-looking components.