Institutional hypothesis of the long‐run income velocity of money and parameter stability of the equilibrium relationship
检验了包含货币化和金融深化指标的M2收入流通速度模型是否具有稳定的协整关系，基于加拿大、挪威、瑞典和英国1880-1986年的数据，发现参数不稳定，质疑了该均衡关系作为结构性货币流通速度函数的解释。
Abstract It has recently been argued that when the conventional specification of M2 income velocity is extended to include proxies for two types of institutional change, as emphasized by Bordo and Jonung (1987, 1990), corresponding to the processes of monetization and increasing financial sophistication of financial developments, this extended model is stable in the sense that one can reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration against the alternative of a single cointegrating vector. There may be implications that such an equilibrium relation is a structural income velocity of money function. The evidence based on century‐long data from 1880 to 1986 presented in this paper about parameter instability of the cointegrating vector of velocity with its determinants for Canada, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom casts doubt on this interpretation. The evidence is based on using formal stability tests. Moreover, it has an ‘eyeball’ support from the sequential estimates of various parameters of the cointegrating relationship including income and interest semi‐elasticities.