Would African Countries Benefit from the Termination of Kenya’s Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU? An Analysis of EU Demand for Imported Roses
研究了肯尼亚对欧盟的优惠贸易地位对欧盟进口玫瑰需求的影响，发现非洲国家玫瑰在欧盟市场是互补品，若肯尼亚-欧盟经济伙伴关系协定失败，肯尼亚、津巴布韦及其他非洲国家的玫瑰出口均会下降。
Abstract This paper assesses the impact of Kenya’s preferential status on EU demand for imported roses by country. Import demand equations were estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model in an Armington framework. With the expiration of the Lomé Convention, tariffs (up to 24%) on Kenyan roses were likely if an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) was not signed by January 2008. Roses from African countries not subject to tariffs were expected to displace Kenya’s exports in the future. However, results of this study showed that roses from African countries were complements in the EU market and those exports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would have been negatively impacted if a Kenya–EU EPA was unsuccessful. Given the maximum import duty on Kenyan roses, EU imports from Kenya would decrease by 9.1% and imports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would decrease by 6% and 4%, respectively.