Economics and Policy Preferences: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals
利用加州投票提案数据和劳动力需求的外生变化，首次大规模因果检验经济状况对政策偏好的影响，发现正向经济冲击降低对再分配政策的支持，并影响投票行为的一致性。
Using California ballot proposition returns and exogenous shifts to labor demand, we provide the first large-scale causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on policy preferences. Consistent with economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find evidence of a need for cognitive consistency in voting behavior as economic shocks have a smaller significant impact on voting on noneconomic ballot issues. While we also demonstrate that positive shocks decrease turnout, we present evidence that our results reflect changes in the electorate's preferences and not simply to its composition. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.