Breaking Trends and the Money-Output Correlation
研究允许时间序列围绕断裂趋势函数平稳的设定对货币-产出相关性的影响。发现美国实际产出可描述为断裂趋势平稳，但这一结果对货币-产出相关性影响有限：1985年前货币与断裂去趋势产出存在强格兰杰因果关系，但1985年后显著减弱。
This paper examines the impact on the money-output correlation of a univariate specification that allows time series to be characterized as stationary around a broken trend function. Though pretesting suggests that U.S. real output (industrial production) can be described as broken-trend stationary, this result has only limited impact on the money-output correlation. Before 1985 there is a strong Granger causal relationship between money and broken-detrended output (but not first-differenced output), even when different short-term interest rates are used as regressors. However, after 1985 this relationship weakens significantly, whether or not one determines that output has a unit root. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology