A Nonlinear Forecasting Model of GDP Growth
构建了一个GDP增长模型，其中制度转换由可观测的张力指数随机触发，该指数由实际GDP增长与可持续增长率的偏差几何求和得到，用于捕捉增长中的地板和天花板效应。
We develop a model of GDP growth under which regime changes are triggered stochastically by an observable tension index, constructed as the geometric sum of deviations of actual GDP growth from a corresponding sustainable rate. Within expansionary regimes, the tension index tends to increase, which heightens the probability of a regime change. Given a regime change, the process becomes reversed, and the tension index begins to decline along a newly established path. Linking the behavior of the tension index to GDP growth enables us to capture floor and ceiling effects. © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.