A norm for a stabilizing budget policy in less developed export economies
针对出口经济因出口价值剧烈波动导致的真实收入波动问题，提出衡量财政政策是否实现稳定目标的规范，发现收入政策通常具有稳定作用，但支出政策可能抵消此效果。
Abstract The stabilization problem of an export economy is defined as smoothing the fluctuations in real income resulting from sharp changes in the value of exports. A stabilizing fiscal policy should be contractionary in good export years and expansionary in bad export years. A norm is developed to measure whether fiscal policy achieves this aim. The revenue impact of the budget is hypothesized to be generally stabilizing and the sample results bear out this hypothesis. However, the total fiscal impact is less clearly stabilizing, as expenditure policy may offset the revenue effect and tend to accentuate rather than smooth out fluctuations in real income. Notes Senior Economist, Fiscal Affairs Department, I.M.F.