Tests of the Specification and Predictive Accuracy of Nonnested Models of Inflation
利用近期通胀波动数据，对预期增强菲利普斯曲线、货币主义方程和理性预期模型三种竞争性通胀理论进行非嵌套假设检验，并评估其预测准确性。
The recent volatility of inflation has provided considerable data to distinguish among competing theories of inflation. The key competing models are the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, a monetarist equation, and the rational expectations model. This paper replicates the results of earlier studies and tests their relative performance using nonnested hypothesis tests. In addition, the forecast accuracy of each of the alternative specification is evaluated using the methodology developed by Fair (1984). This method seeks to identify forecast uncertainty arising from the model's error term, coefficient estimates, exogenous variable forecasts, and possible misspecification. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.