Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis
回顾了判断性预测与统计预测方法相对价值的争议，指出在专家判断下预测质量高于先前断言，并重点探讨两者交互的研究，区分了综合两种输入的方法。
This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have previously asserted, and circumstances favourable to this are identified. The issue of the interaction of judgemental and statistical methods is, however, identified as a more worthwhile line of inquiry, and research in this area is reviewed, differentiating approaches aimed at synthesising both of these inputs.