Capacity Expansion of Power Generation Systems with Uncertainty in the Prices of Primary Energy Resources
提出一种方法，通过将燃料价格分布映射到装机容量概率分布，计算期望值、众数、方差和期望总成本等指标，并基于盈亏平衡点分析求解两机组系统的最优组合。
In capacity expansion studies of power generation systems, the uncertainty in the prices of the primary energy resources is a major concern. The approach presented in this paper accounts for this uncertainty by mapping the probability distribution of the installed capacity for any given distribution of the fuel prices. Given the probability density function and the cumulative distribution of the installed capacity, a variety of performance measures is derived, including the expected value, the mode, and the variance of the installed capacity, and the expected total costs. Results are obtained analytically for a 2-unit system using a breakeven point analysis approach to find the optimal mix for any given set of fuel prices under the assumption of normally distributed primary energy prices.