A sequential decision model to determine optimal farm-level grain marketing policies
研究开发了多阶段决策模型，基于对未来价格概率分布的主观评估，计算最优闭环销售策略，并分析了风险厌恶程度对最优策略的影响。
This paper deals with the development of models to support postharvest grain-marketing decisions. These multi-stage decision models compute optimal closed-loop sales policies based on subjective assessments of the probability distributions of future prices. The first approach assumes that the decision maker is risk indifferent. Later on the model is expanded in order to maximize expected utility to capture risk aversion as well. The impacts of different degrees of risk aversion on the optimal policy are analyzed and conclusions are drawn with respect to the model application in practical decision making. Copyright 1987 by Oxford University Press.