Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
利用NBERAASA调查数据，区分了经济预测中的“共识”（点预测的一致程度）和“不确定性”（概率分布的分散程度），发现点预测的标准差往往低估了不确定性，但两者总体正相关。
The authors define "consensus" as the degree of agreement among point predictions aimed at the same target by different individuals and " "uncertainty" as the diffuseness of the corresponding probability distributions. This distinction is made operational with the aid of the NBERAASA survey data on matched point and probabilistic forecasts of inflation and the rate of change in gross national product. The means of the two sets of forecasts agree closely. Standard deviations of point forecasts tend to understate uncertainty as measured by standard deviations of the predictive probability distributions. However, these measures of consensus and uncertainty are on the whole positively correlated. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.