The Price of Gasoline and New Vehicle Fuel Economy: Evidence from Monthly Sales Data
利用1978至2007年月度新车销售数据，估计汽油价格对车型销售的影响，发现2002至2007年汽油价格上涨解释了美国制造商市场份额下降的近一半，但提高汽油税对平均燃油经济性影响有限。
This paper uses a unique dataset of monthly new vehicle sales by detailed model from 1978 to 2007, and implements a new identification strategy to estimate the effect of the price of gasoline on individual vehicle model sales. We control for unobserved vehicle and consumer characteristics by using within model year changes in the price of gasoline and sales. We find a significant sales response, suggesting that the gasoline price increase from 2002 to 2007 explains nearly half of the decline in market share of US manufacturers. On the other hand, an increase in the gasoline tax would only modestly raise average fuel economy.