Pathways out of rural poverty: a case study in socio-economic mobility in the rural Philippines
利用菲律宾一个村庄30年的家庭面板数据，分析宏观经济、教育和劳动力禀赋如何影响贫困退出路径，发现1980年代后农业阶梯变窄，教育回报上升，且贫困状态无显著依赖性。
Exploiting unique household panel data covering a 30-year period, this paper attempts to analyse the patterns of poverty exits by examining socio-economic mobility in a Philippines village. Macroeconomic growth was a major factor explaining poverty-exit probabilities until the early 1980s. After the 1980s, poverty exit-paths through 'agricultural ladder' narrowed, schooling and growth became equally important factors owing to the increased returns to schooling, and labour endowments also became important for the lower, but not upper, social strata (providing an economic incentive to have more children for the poor). Surprisingly, we find no evidence of state dependence in poverty spells once observable factors are taken into account. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.