Towards European Monetary Union without the EMS
分析欧洲货币体系崩溃的原因，认为其可信度总被经济衰退削弱，并论证当前更灵活的汇率安排有助于向欧洲货币联盟过渡，最后提出具体推进方案。
Towards EMU without the EMS Paul De Grauwe This paper examines the causes of the breakdown of the EMS, arguing that EMS credibility has always been impaired by recessions. This has relevance both for the future of monetary union in Europe and for the path by which it might be attained. I argue that, in comparison with the ERM, the present more flexible exchange rate arrangements will ease, not exacerbate, some of the technical problems in making the transition to EMU. I then analyse the political economy of monetary union and identify the main stumbling blocks that remain. Finally, I set out a specific proposal that takes advantage of the new opportunities to move forward towards EMU.