Policy fundamentals, interest rates differential, and expected devaluation in the presence of an active crawling peg system
解释南锥体国家（阿根廷、智利、乌拉圭）在爬行钉住汇率制期间，国内本币贷款利率远高于经本币贬值调整后的外币贷款利率的原因，指出政策基本面与汇率政策可持续性不一致是关键，并用乌拉圭数据证明预期贬值存在“政策风险因子”。
One of the most interesting theoretical issues that comes up from the analysis of the tablita period in the Southern Cone economies—Argentina, Chile and Uruguay—is the interpretation of why interest rates on domestic currency loans were much higher than the rate on foreign currency loans adjusted for devaluation of the domestic currency, even though the rate of devaluation was set by the monetary authorities six months ahead and published in a little table (tablita). This was particularly puzzling in the case of Uruguay which had practically perfect capital mobility. We show that the reason rational economic agents were willing to pay high domestic interest rates rather than borrowing in foreign currency was that they realized that policy fundamentals were inconsistent with the sustainability of the exchange rate policy. Using data for Uruguay we show that a second systematic component of expectations of devaluation is what we call ‘the policy risk factor’ and modeled as a function of the fiscal and monetary variables..