Equilibrium interest rates and financial liberalisation in developing countries
指出金融自由化中市场决定的利率可能无法同时平衡金融市场和储蓄投资,导致金融体系不稳定,并基于智利和韩国的经验提出可持续改革需要低正实际利率和广泛监管。
It is a central argument of the financial repression literature that interest rates should be determined by the market to reflect the true cost of capital. This article suggests that the notion of an ‘equilibrium interest rate’ may be undefined since the rate required to balance financial markets differs from that required to equilibrate savings and investment. Thus liberalisation introduces an intrinsic instability into the financial system as a result of portfolio adjustment. The article examines the Chilean and Korean experiences and concludes that a sustainable reform requires positive but low real interest rates and broad regulation of the financial system to ensure macroeconomic stability.