A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics
该模型将汇率视为一种资产价格，取决于对未来影响相对价格和绝对价格水平的外生实际与货币因素的预期，解释了汇率行为的随机成分、与购买力平价的偏离、对未来扰动的预期反应以及过度调整的原因。
This model treats the exchange rate as an "asset price" that depends on expectations concerning exogenous real and monetary factors that will affect relative prices and absolute price levels in future periods. Changes in exchange rates reflect both expected changes in these exogenous factors and changes in expectations occasioned by new information. The model explains the random component in exchange rate behavior, the source of divergences from purchasing power parity, the anticipatory response of exchange rates to future expected disturbances, and the causes of exchange rate overshooting.