Incorporating Stochastic Variables in Crop Response Models: Implications for Fertilization Decisions
构建了一个包含土壤湿度等随机因素的作物决策模型，分析其对氮肥施用决策的影响，并基于印第安纳州玉米生产的15种土壤和天气条件，估算利润最大化的施氮量在156至185磅/英亩之间，评估了跨条件使用单一施肥率的经济损失。
Abstract Most crop‐decision models focus on output variation in response to nonstochastic inputs. Little attention has been given to the effects of stochastic factors on the input‐use decision. A crop‐decision model is developed to examine the impact of soil moisture on the nitrogen fertilization decision. The model is applied to 15 different soil and weather conditions for corn production in Indiana. Based on estimated response functions, the profit maximizing nitrogen application rate varies from 156 to 185 pounds of actual nitrogen (N) per acre. We evaluate the expected economic losses arising from applying to one set of conditions a rate deemed optimal for another.