Firm Asymmetries and Sequential R&D: Theory and Evidence from the Mainframe Computer Industry
研究了企业在序贯研发中如何分配稀缺资源，发现市场份额大或资源丰富的企业会设定更激进的阶段目标，验证了Arrow的“替代效应”。
We incorporate strategic considerations into the analysis of a problem that has hitherto been treated in a decision theoretic fashion: the allocation of scarce R&D resources when R&D proceeds in stages. In doing so, we formalize a notion of “system complexity” and investigate its implications for the allocation of these scarce resources. Using detailed data from fieldwork at all mainframe manufacturers in the world to investigate our theoretical predictions, we provide evidence that larger market share firms set more aggressive stage targets, as do more resource-rich firms. Our results can be seen as a verification of the mechanism underlying Arrow's “replacement” effect.