Unemployment Dynamics in Britain
分析英国失业流量与存量的相互动态关系，发现失业持续时间与失业存量的相关性主要源于持续时间对失业的依赖，且自1960年代末以来，失业动态主要由流入冲击驱动。
We examine the inter-related dynamics of the unemployment flows and stock. Our model allows them to be linked through the standard accounting identity, but also through behavioural relationships. We find that, for the UK, the bulk of the correlation between duration and the unemployment stock arises from the dependence of duration on unemployment, taking careful account of the inter-temporal identity. Outflow shocks have contributed little to the evolution of unemployment since the late 1960s. Given that the correlation of duration and unemployment arises from the behavioural relationship, we show that unemployment dynamics arise mostly from shocks to the inflow. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.