Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models
提出用重复模拟来检验无自由参数的随机宏观经济模型，通过比较模型生成矩与数据矩进行精确检验，并以Mehra和Prescott模型为例计算检验的显著性水平。
A stochastic macroeconomic model with no free parameters can be tested by comparing its features, such as moments, with those of data. Repeated simulation allows exact tests and gives the distribution of the sample moment under the null hypothesis that the model is true. We calculate the size of tests of the model studied by Mehra and Prescott. The approximate size of their test (which seeks to match model-generated, mean, risk-free interest rates and equity premia with historical values) is 0 although alternate, empirical representations of this model economy or alternate moment-matching tests yield large probabilities of Type I error.