The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life
研究发现，20世纪初预期寿命增长中仅约20%发生在65岁以后，而到21世纪初这一比例接近80%，并趋近100%。这对高收入国家的劳动力参与率产生负面影响，需要创新政策来维持长寿与繁荣的正向关系。
The share of increases in life expectancy realized after age 65 was only about 20 percent at the beginning of the 20th century for the United States and 16 other countries at comparable stages of development; but that share was close to 80 percent by the dawn of the 21st century, and is almost certainly approaching 100 percent asymptotically. This new demographic transition portends a diminished survival effect on working life. For high-income countries at the forefront of the longevity transition, expected lifetime labor force participation as a percent of life expectancy is declining. Innovative policies are needed if societies wish to preserve a positive relationship running from increasing longevity to greater prosperity.