High and Volatile Real Interest Rates: Where Does the Fed Fit In?
研究美联储1979年10月货币政策操作程序变更后，实际利率是否立即变得更高且更波动，以判断两者间的因果关系。
THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S NEW PROCEDURES FOR THE CONDUCT of monetary policy, introduced on October 6, 1979, have been the subject not only of considerable academic and political interest but also of intense debate (B. Friedman 1982; Roley 1982; Walsh 1982, 1984; Mascaro and Meltzer 1983; among others). The Fed's new operating procedures generally are perceived to have resulted in abnormally high and volatile real interest rates, and thus to have contributed to, if not been totally responsible for, the deepest recession in postwar history. In this paper we address the following question: was the advent of the increased volatility and level of the real rate of interest concurrent with the Fed's October 1979 change in operating procedures? That is, was the real rate of interest high and more volatile immediately after the October 1979 change in policy procedures, in which case we might infer a connection between the Fed's change in policy procedures and the increased volatility and level of the real rate. Or, did the real rate become high and more volatile some time following the policy change, which might lead us to conclude that the increased volatility and the increased level of the real rate was connected to some other event(s) occurring after the October 1979 policy change.