Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch
分析1980年后重大金融危机对各国进口量的影响，发现平均进口收缩25%持续5个季度，并认为这仅为当前世界贸易崩溃深度和持续时间的最低估计。
SUMMARY Against the background of a collapse of world trade and predictions in March 2009 by IMF, WTO and World Bank of a relatively quick rebound, this paper analyses how major post 1980 financial crises have impacted on import volumes of individual countries. The article finds that on average imports contracted by 25% during a period of 5 quarters, but argues that this provides a minimum estimate only for the depth and duration of the present world trade collapse.