赌博效应的情境依赖模型

A Context-Dependent Model of the Gambling Effect

Management Science · 2002
被引 34
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

提出一种情境依赖的风险决策理论,认为只有在选项同时包含无风险和有风险彩票时才会偏离期望效用,用于解释赌博效应,且与随机占优一致但可能违反传递性。

Abstract

This paper presents a context-dependent theory of decision under risk. The relevant contextual factor is the presence of a riskless lottery in a preference comparison. The theory only deviates from expected utility if the set of options contains both riskless and risky lotteries. The main motivation for the theory is to explain the gambling effect. Contrary to previous theories of the gambling effect, the present theory is consistent with stochastic dominance. It can, however, violate transitivity. The theory allows for a decomposition of the interaction between risk aversion and gambling aversion and thereby extends the classical Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion.

风险决策背景依赖赌博效应随机占优