Implications of Mean-Reverting Measurement Error for Longitudinal Studies of Wages and Employment
探讨均值回归测量误差如何影响两个基于纵向调查数据的研究领域：商业周期中实际工资变动和劳动供给跨期替代，发现考虑该误差后实际工资可能更具顺周期性，且常用工具变量估计量在测量误差程度不同时可能不一致但影响较小。
This note examines the implications of mean-reverting mea-surement error for two influential literatures based on longitudinal survey data: (1) the literature on real wage variation over the business cycle and (2) the literature on intertemporal substitution in labor supply. Accounting for mean-reverting measurement error suggests that real wages may be even more procyclical than indicated by recent longitudinal studies. We also find that the instrumental variables estimator commonly used in intertemporal substitution studies is inconsistent if changes in earnings and hours of work are measured with different degrees of mean reversion, but the magnitude of the resulting inconsistency appears to be small. © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.