Estimating the Evolution of Money’s Role in the U.S. Monetary Business Cycle
使用固定系数和滚动窗口贝叶斯估计，研究二战后美国商业周期中货币的作用，发现货币在1970年代重要但之后减弱，忽略货币会严重扭曲脉冲响应函数。
We assess money’s role in the post‐WWII U.S. business cycle by employing both fixed‐coefficient and rolling‐window Bayesian estimations of a structural model of the business cycle with money. Our empirical evidence favors a specification with drifting parameters for money‐consumption nonseparability and the Federal Reserve’s reaction to nominal money growth. The role of money is estimated to have been important during the 1970s and declined afterward. The omission of money produces severely distorted impulse response functions (relative to the model with money). Money is found to be important in replicating the U.S. output volatility during the Great Inflation.