Mnemonomics: The Sunk Cost Fallacy as a Memory Kludge
提出沉没成本谬误可能是对有限记忆的最优反应：当决策者忘记项目启动原因时，沉没成本提供未来利润信息，从而影响后续决策。实验表明，记忆约束下人们从按比例偏差转向协和效应偏差。
We offer a theory of the sunk cost fallacy as an optimal response to limited memory. As new information arrives, a decision-maker may not remember all the reasons he began a project. The sunk cost gives additional information about future profits and informs subsequent decisions. The Concorde effect makes the investor more eager to complete projects when sunk costs are high and the pro-rata effect makes the investor less eager. In a controlled experiment we had subjects play a simple version of the model. In a baseline treatment subjects exhibit the pro-rata bias. When we induce memory constraints the effect reverses and the subjects exhibit the Concorde bias.