Will HIV become a major determinant of fertility in Sub‐Saharan Africa?
基于1980年代人口健康调查数据，拟合生育率模型分析三个撒哈拉以南非洲国家，探讨HIV通过不同近端决定因素影响未来生育水平的机制，初步认为严重HIV疫情可能压低生育率。
A widely used demographic model of fertility, based on the proximate determinants, is described. The model is fitted for three contrasting sub‐Saharan African countries, using data from the 1980s round of Demographic and Health surveys, to establish a baseline profile of fertility for the period immediately before any widespread behavioural changes in response to the spread of HIV can plausibly have taken place. Regional variations in the relative significance of the different proximate determinants are noted, and considered in a discussion of the mechanisms through which HIV could influence future fertility levels. It is tentatively suggested that severe HIV epidemics are most likely to exert a downward pressure on fertility. More empirical data are required to test this theory.