Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico
利用1998至2005年墨西哥11个州的白玉米周度价格数据，通过协整和误差修正模型分析发现，美墨玉米价格无长期均衡关系，墨西哥国内价格受本地条件影响，尤其与锡那罗亚和哈利斯科州的价格关联性强。
Abstract The impact of U.S.‐grown maize on Mexican markets is a subject of heated debate, and is complicated by limited substitution between white and yellow maize as well as regional price differences within Mexico. This article improves on previous analyses using a detailed data set of white maize prices reported weekly in 11 states across Mexico from 1998 through 2005. Using cointegration analysis and the error‐correction model, we find that prices between the United States and Mexico do not share a common long‐run relationship. Within Mexico, prices in Michoacán and Oaxaca are only weakly related with prices in neighboring states, whereas prices in Sinaloa and Jalisco exert considerable influence on prices elsewhere in Mexico. We conclude that, despite North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), white maize prices in Mexico are determined by local conditions including particularly the degree of integration to other regions within Mexico.