Characterising Vulnerability to Poverty in Rural Haiti: A Multilevel Decomposition Approach
利用2007年海地农村调查数据，通过多层次模型分析自报冲击对家庭消费和收入的影响，计算多种贫困脆弱性指标，发现自报的个体冲击（尤其是健康冲击）比可观测的共同冲击对脆弱性影响更大，且忽略自报冲击会低估脆弱性。
Abstract This article characterises vulnerability to poverty in Haiti using a unique survey conducted in 2007 in rural areas. In a first step, using two‐level linear random coefficient models of both per capita consumption and per capita income, the article assesses the impact of self‐reported shocks on households' economic well‐being. In a second step, the prediction model is used to calculate various measures of vulnerability to poverty, considering various types of shocks. Empirical findings show that self‐reported (or observable) idiosyncratic shocks, in particular health‐related shocks, have larger impact on vulnerability to poverty than observable covariate shocks. These results are in line with the fact that many households reported idiosyncratic health shocks as being the worst shocks they experienced. On the other hand, unobservable idiosyncratic shocks appear to have generally more influence on households' vulnerability to poverty than unobservable covariate ones. We also show that omitting self‐reported shocks in the analysis leads to an underestimate of households' vulnerability to poverty.