Business Price Expectations: 1947-83
利用1947-83年多个分散调查数据，构建企业高管三类价格预期的时间序列估计，为检验现代预期理论提供独立调查基础。
IN 1947, Fortune INTRODUCEV ITS SURVEYS OF business opinion by saying In the past, the search for the businessman's view of the future has been based on a half-world of conjecture, New Year's Day interviews, and subjective references to what 'they' are saying in 'financial circles' . (August 1947, insert, p. 1). More recently, the accepted practice among economists has been to attribute to business executives the forecasts of their econometric models. It is not clear which the traditional or the modern practice is the lesser evil. Economists have now become concerned with the actual price expectations of economic agents (Gramlich (1983) provides a summary). Kaufman andWoglom (1983) provide a rigorous justification for this concern: modern expectations theory requires independent, survey-based estimates of the expectations of economic agents in order to avoid a problem akin to the identification problem in the construction of structural models. This paper uses the data of many previously scattered surveys to construct time series estimates of three types of price expectations of business executives. Probably the best study of the price expectations of business executives is de Leeuw and McKelvey (1984) (see also de Leeuw and McKelvey 1981). Exploiting