A Political Economy Approach to the Neoclassical Gradualist Model of Transition
从政治经济学角度剖析新古典渐进主义转型模型,识别其基本与次要要素,揭示模型内在矛盾,帮助理解转型改革的复杂性与争议。
Abstract. A political economy approach to the neoclassical gradualist model of transition requires the exposition of what I define the primary elements of the model, which are economic analysis, definition of a good society, speed, political structure, ideological structure and whether the initial conditions were incorporated in the model. After the identification of the primary elements of the neoclassical gradualist model the next step is to identify secondary elements, the desired changes with respect to price liberalization-stabilization, privatization, institutional structure, monetary policy and the financial system, fiscal policy, international trade and foreign aid and social policy. The analytical framework developed makes possible to understand the neoclassical gradualist model from a new and more enlightening perspective. We are better able to comprehend the complexities involved and the disagreements about the reform process. The adoption of a gradual process of transition did not only involve specifying the required policies of a successful transition but also entailed a process, a sequence by which the reforms should be introduced. As such, a process of transition consistent with the policies recommended by the neoclassical gradualists economists is developed. The conclusion reveals the inconsistencies in the model.