Information, hierarchical model structures and forecasting: A case study of the stock of dairy cows in England and Wales
提出在构建预测模型时如何排序和利用信息（数据和理论）的指南，形成三层分层模型结构，并以英格兰和威尔士奶牛存栏量预测为例说明。
This paper suggests guidelines for ordering and utilising information (data and theory) in the construction of forecasting models. This framework leads to the notion of a threefold stratification of model structures which is seen to be hierarchical. An illustrative case-study of the approach is provided by the building of models for forecasting the stock of cows- in England and Wales.