The Fisher Hypothesis under Different Monetary Regimes
利用1902年以来的美国短期市政债券收益率数据，检验不同货币体制下通胀与名义利率的关系，发现战后年份支持费雪假说，而此前年份则被拒绝，差异可能源于最优预测技术的不同。
We examine the relation between inflation and nominal interest rates under the various monetary regimes in effect in the United States since the turn of the century. Our data include a newly constructed time series of short-term municipal bond yields observed annually since 1902. The results generally support the hypothesis that after-tax nominal yields adjust point-for-point with rationally forecasted inflation for the postwar years, but strongly reject that hypothesis for the preceding years. We suggest, and offer supporting evidence, that the difference between the two subperiods may be attributable to differences in the optimal forecasting technique for each era when forecasting is a costly endeavor.