Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa
利用含结构断点的时间序列检验，分析2008年全球金融危机对北非六国经济增长率的影响，发现冲击在多数国家仅为暂时性，仅利比亚和毛里塔尼亚的断点与危机吻合。
We utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for an adverse impact on economic growth rates in North Africa associated with the recent US financial crisis and global recession. One or two breaks are identified for each country, except for Morocco where no break is found, while breaks coincide with the 2008 financial crisis in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania). These findings suggest that, in general, shocks from the recent financial crisis have only temporary effects on economic growth in these countries. Impulse response functions with breaks confirm these results. We conclude by suggesting explanations for these findings.